Title: Westward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Rapid-intensification over the Northwestern Pacific during Short Duration El Niño
Lecturer: Yipeng Guo
Time: 12:40 PM March 29,2019
Venue: Lecture Hall D103, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Xianlin Campus
Abstract: West Northern Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) classified as severe and super typhoons mostly undergo a rapid-intensification (RI) before making landfall. Yet the roles of relative contributors in this intensity change remain unclear, bringing much challenge to RI forecasting. El Niño events are known to be important contributors to the WNP TC RI, and can be categorized into two subtypes based on their durations. In the new study, researchers investigated the respective impacts of the two subtypes and found that during short duration (SD) El Niño events, the WNP TC RI mean occurrence position migrates westward by ~8.0° longitude. In other words, the WNP TC RI occurs much closer to the East Asian mainland during SD El Niño events, which increases the chances for severe typhoon genesis in China’s coastal waters. The delayed RI occurrence also brings great challenge to forecasts and narrows the time window for disaster prevention and mitigation, leaving China’s coastal areas more vulnerable in typhoon hazards.
Lecturer: Yipeng Guo
Time: 12:40 PM March 29,2019
Venue: Lecture Hall D103, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Xianlin Campus
Abstract: West Northern Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) classified as severe and super typhoons mostly undergo a rapid-intensification (RI) before making landfall. Yet the roles of relative contributors in this intensity change remain unclear, bringing much challenge to RI forecasting. El Niño events are known to be important contributors to the WNP TC RI, and can be categorized into two subtypes based on their durations. In the new study, researchers investigated the respective impacts of the two subtypes and found that during short duration (SD) El Niño events, the WNP TC RI mean occurrence position migrates westward by ~8.0° longitude. In other words, the WNP TC RI occurs much closer to the East Asian mainland during SD El Niño events, which increases the chances for severe typhoon genesis in China’s coastal waters. The delayed RI occurrence also brings great challenge to forecasts and narrows the time window for disaster prevention and mitigation, leaving China’s coastal areas more vulnerable in typhoon hazards.